[Daily SMM Coal & Coke Brief] 20251215

[SMM Coal and Coke Daily Briefing]

Coking Coal Market:

The offer price for low-sulphur coking coal in Linfen is 1,500 yuan/mt. The offer price for low-sulphur coking coal in Tangshan is 1,480 yuan/mt.

Raw material fundamentals, production resumptions at some mines are slow, safety inspections continue to suppress mine production, and the implementation of the second round of coke price cuts has led to a slowdown in downstream procurement pace and a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Additionally, poor performance in online auctions, mainly resulting in no-sales or transactions at lower prices, has created expectations for further price reductions for some coal types, although coking coal and other backbone coal types are performing slightly better.

Coke Market:

The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke - dry quenching is 1,845 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - dry quenching is 1,705 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke - wet quenching is 1,490 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - wet quenching is 1,400 yuan/mt.

Supply side, after two rounds of price cuts, coke producers' profit margins have tightened, with some incurring losses, leading to a slight decline in production enthusiasm. Coupled with the strict implementation of environmental protection inspections, the operating rates of coke plants have decreased, and coke supply has begun to tighten. Demand side, finished steel prices fluctuate downward, steel mill profits have narrowed significantly, and maintenance at blast furnaces in some mills has increased, resulting in a decrease in daily average hot metal production and a decline in coke demand, with purchasing as needed being the main strategy. In summary, the coke fundamentals and cost support are insufficient, market sentiment is biased towards pessimism, the coke market is expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, and steel mills may push for further coke price cuts.[SMM Steel]